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Module 1 · Unit 3 · 10 minutes

3.2 Assessing the initial situation and identifying decarbonisation pathways

Introduction

The transition to low-carbon heating requires more than selecting a new technology. Before technical solutions can be evaluated, it is essential to understand the current situation, including energy consumption, thermal loads, operating temperatures, equipment condition, fuel use, emissions profile, and future operational requirements. Only with a clear understanding of these factors can suitable decarbonisation pathways be identified and compared.

At a high level, most heat decarbonisation strategies can be grouped into four pathways:

  • Efficiency-first (demand reduction)
  • Electrification
  • District heating
  • Renewable heat

These pathways should not be viewed as competing alternatives from which only one must be selected. In practice, successful heat decarbonisation projects typically combine elements from several pathways. The most effective solution depends on site-specific conditions, technical constraints, economics, available infrastructure, and long-term sustainability objectives.

The purpose of an initial assessment is therefore not to identify a single technology, but to understand which combination of pathways is most suitable for a given application.

Understanding the Existing Situation

Before evaluating decarbonisation options, several key factors should be assessed:

  • Current energy consumption and fuel sources
  • Annual heat demand and thermal load profile
  • Required process or building heating temperatures
  • Existing heating equipment and remaining asset life
  • Building fabric and energy efficiency level
  • Operational schedules and occupancy patterns
  • Availability of electricity, gas, district heating, or renewable energy resources
  • Identify potential sources of waste heat
  • Capital expenditure constraints and investment horizon
  • Carbon reduction targets and regulatory requirements

Particular attention should be paid to thermal loads and temperature requirements. Unlike electricity, heat is not a uniform energy service. Heat must be delivered at the temperature level required by the application. A low-temperature heating system serving underfloor heating has very different decarbonisation opportunities compared with a high-temperature industrial process requiring steam.

This distinction is one of the reasons why there is no universal decarbonisation solution for heat.

Pathways

Pathway 1: Efficiency-First (Demand Reduction)

The first and often most cost-effective pathway is reducing the amount of heat required in the first place. Lower heat demand reduces operating costs and greenhouse gas emissions while often making other decarbonisation technologies more technically and economically viable. This is because a lower heating demand reduces the required heating capacity, enabling a smaller heating system to be installed, which can in turn lower capital investment costs. Typical efficiency measures include:

  • Building insulation improvements
  • Air-tightness measures
  • Heat recovery systems (also internal heat recycling)

An example is an industrial laundry service. Laundry requires large quantities of hot water, which is primarily generated using fossil fuels. As wastewater leaves the system, its remaining heat is captured and used to warm the fresh water entering the washing machines. This heat recovery process lowers the amount of new energy required for water heating.

  • Improved controls and automation
  • Optimised operating schedules
  • Process efficiency improvements
  • Distribution system upgrades

As a general comparison, improving efficiency often provides energy savings at a lower cost than generating additional low-carbon heat. Every kilowatt-hour that is avoided through efficiency measures eliminates the need to generate, transport, and pay for that energy. For this reason, demand reduction is frequently considered the foundation upon which other decarbonisation measures are built.

However, efficiency measures alone rarely achieve full decarbonisation and are therefore usually combined with one or more of the following pathways.

Pathway 2: Electrification

Electrification replaces fossil fuel combustion with electrically powered heating technologies which uses in best case renewable energy. The most common solutions include:

  • Heat pumps
  • Electric resistance heaters
  • Hybrid heating systems

Heat pumps are generally the preferred electrification technology. Depending on operating conditions, seasonal efficiencies may exceed 300 %, meaning that one unit of electricity can provide three or more units of useful heat. Electric resistance heating provides approximately one unit of heat per unit of electricity consumed. While technically simple, it is typically reserved for backup operation, peak load coverage, or applications where heat pumps are not practical.

Electrification is particularly attractive where:

  • Low- to medium-temperature heat is required
  • Adequate electrical infrastructure is available
  • Carbon intensity of the electricity supply is low
  • Future fossil fuel phase-out requirements must be addressed

Its limitations generally relate to electricity network capacity, high-temperature applications, and seasonal peak demand management.

Pathway 3: District Heating

District heating provides heat from one or more centralised sources through a network that serves multiple buildings or facilities. In the best-case scenario, the heat sources are climate-neutral, but they are not always today.

District heating can be particularly effective in urban environments where heat demand density is high, and network infrastructure either exists or can be developed economically. Advantages include:

  • Centralised operation and maintenance
  • Access to large-scale renewable heat sources
  • Long-term flexibility as heat generation sources evolve

However, district heating depends on network availability and may require significant infrastructure investment. It is therefore not suitable in every location.

Pathway 4: Renewable Heat

Renewable heat refers to heating solutions (as for example heat pumps) that utilize renewable energy sources. Such as:

  • Air
  • Water sources as rivers or lakes
  • Waste heat recovery (also wastewater)
  • Solar thermal systems
  • Geothermal energy

Case study

Worked example: Ahrtal-Werke thermal spring

A high level example: Heat generated from the thermal spring is delivered directly into the Ahrtal-Werke’s district heating network. The mineral-rich spring “Großer Sprudel” has been producing water at around 36 °C from a depth of 95 meters for over 160 years. Using two large heat pumps, this natural heat source provides reliable and environmentally friendly heating for around 250 households.

  • Biomass systems

Renewable heat can play an important role where local resources are available and can be utilized sustainably.

The Importance of Combining Pathways

A key lesson from heat decarbonisation projects is that the four pathways should not be viewed as isolated solutions. Unlike the electricity transition, where one kilowatt of electrical power can generally serve any electrical application, heat systems are fundamentally influenced by temperature requirements. One kilowatt of thermal energy is not automatically suitable for every use. The same quantity of heat may be highly valuable at one temperature level and unusable at another.

As a result, successful decarbonisation rarely follows a single pathway. Instead, it requires a flexible and integrated approach that considers the interaction between demand reduction, heat supply technologies, infrastructure, economics, and operational requirements.

Creativity and system thinking are therefore essential. The objective is not to force every application into the same solution framework, but to identify the combination of measures that delivers the most effective balance of carbon reduction, energy efficiency, reliability, and cost.

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